TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF PALM OIL PRICE IN MALAYSIA
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by Rina Mariati Bt Gustam
The volatility in global vegetable oil prices has led to inconsistency and fluctuation in the movement of crude palm oil (CPO) price. Supply and demand as well as stocks play important roles in the palm oil price direction. This paper aims to determine the CPO price outlook for October, November and December 2020 by using time series analysis. Time series analysis comprise of methods for analyzing time-series data to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. The data used is monthly data from January 2010 until September 2020 after which the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is used to predict the future value of Malaysian CPO prices from October until December 2020. The findings indicate that ARIMA (0,1,1) is the most adequate model to predict the future value of CPO price.
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Mohammad Hafezh Abdul Rahman:
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